NATO Forward Deploying Patriot Missiles Near Russian Border: Massive Expansion of Aerial Warfare Assets Underway

On March 7 Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas confirmed that NATO would station Patriot surface to air missile systems in the country, which borders the Russian Kaliningrad region as well as Russian ally Belarus. “This year, the rotational air defence system will finally become operational, at least partially,” he stated at a press conference in Vilnius. “Our goal is to have a rotation similar to the air policing mission… This principle would not be a one-off thing for several months but would cover all of our calendar months and significantly increase our air defence capabilities,” he stated. The system’s radar range could provide coverage deep into the airspace of both Kaliningrad and Belarus. Announcement of the deployment comes amid a broader trend towards rapid expansion of Western deployments of aerial warfare systems near Russian territory, which has accelerated considerably with Finland’s admission into NATO in April 2023, doubling the alliance’s borders with Russia. It also coincides with NATO’s ‘Steadfast Defender 2024’ war games simulating conflict in Europe, which are the largest such exercises in decades and which Moscow has claimed highlight that the alliance’s “increasingly aggressive nature.”

Following its accession Finland will not only be a leading client for F-35 fighters, which are intended almost exclusively for possible engagements with Russian forces, but it is also set to be the first NATO member to acquire the U.S.-Israeli David’s Sling system, an advanced successor to the Patriot which has been combat tested in the Syrian theatre. Negotiations are currently underway for Finland to also host a significant presence of U.S. Air Force F-35s. The forward presence of American F-35s in Eastern and Central Europe has continued to grow, while new clients ranging from Germany to the Czech Republic have significantly increased the number that Russia would face in a potential war, with deployments well within range to strike targets in Kaliningrad, Belarus and the Russian mainland. German, Dutch, Belgian and Italian F-35s will also be able to make use of American nuclear warheads under nuclear sharing agreements. Looking to air defences, the Aegis Ashore long range ballistic missile defence is set to become operational in Poland in 2024, after the same system was activated in Romania, eight years prior. The system provides a higher tier strategic missile defence capability complementing the Patriot and David’s Sling. 

Romania has seven Patriot Configuration 3 units on order for $3.9 billion, while Poland has invested $4.75 billion to acquire the same system. The system first saw combat during the Gulf War in 1991, during which its primary target was the Soviet Scud B, although its performance record was found to have been poor with a few and possibly no successful shootdowns of Iraqi assets. Although it was hoped that the system’s modernisation would make it more reliable, such hopes were largely dashed by its failure to intercept a strike by makeshift missiles launched by Yemeni insurgents against Saudi Arabia in 2017. Targeting Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, missiles were shown by satellite imagery not to have been neutralised and instead, much like the Iraqi Scuds, landed nearby due to poor accuracy. Analysis of photos and videos of the strike widely posted on social media confirmed this. 

Two years after the strike on Riyadh, Patriots similarly proved totally impotent against Iranian drone strikes on Saudi targets. Jeffrey Lewis, the analyst who led the research team, stated regarding the 2017 failure of the Patriot system in Saudi Arabia and the coverup that followed: “Governments lie about the effectiveness of these systems. Or they’re misinformed. And that should worry the hell out of us.” Ukrainian forces have similarly claimed multiple successes using Patriots against Russian assets since two units were delivered in May 2023, although this remains hotly disputed and has been seriously questioned by analysts. While much remains uncertain regarding the viability of the Patriot under combat conditions, the massive expansion of deployments in Eastern Europe is indicative of the broader military buildup underway in the region.