The U.S. Air Force Could Buy Over 200 B-21s: Major Expansion of Long Range Stealth Bomber Fleet Considered

<p >The U.S. Air Force is currently undertaking a significant force structure review, which according to the manufacturer of the B-21 Raider intercontinental range strategic stealth bomber Northrop Grumman could lead to an expansion of planned acquisitions of the aircraft. The B-21 made its <a href=" >first flight</a> on November 10, 2023, and is expected to enter service close to 2030, providing the U.S. Air Force with its first widely operated stealth bomber. Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden recently stated she believed that the possibility of expanded orders was “exactly what the Air Force is looking at,” with Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall having “been open about looking at the various options they have for increasing their force size, and has talked specifically about NGAD, and we know that B-21 is in the mix, as well.” With the future of America’s NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance)<a href=" target="_blank"> sixth generation fighter program</a> currently highly uncertain due to its immense projected costs, the possibility has repeatedly been raised by analysts that funds saved from the program could facilitate larger acquisitions of B-2s. </p><p ><img src=" title="B-21 Bomber in Flight"></p><p >The U.S. Air Force had sought a large intercontinental range bomber fleet since the 1980s, and initially planned to field 120 B-2 Spirit bombers which entered service from 1997. Serious cost overruns and performance issues with the B-2, which had unacceptably high maintenance requirements and extreme production and operational costs, resulted in just 20 of the aircraft being serially produced. The B-21 is thus set to be the first intercontinental range stealth bomber to be widely fielded, with its development coming at a time when China is developing its own comparable aircraft under the <a href=" program</a>. The bomber was previously intended to be supported by unmanned ‘wingman’ aircraft, although work on their development was <a href=" in July 2022. Serious <a href=" target="_blank">deficiencies</a> in submarine construction, and major cost overruns and <a href=" target="_blank">development issues </a>that leave the future of the Sentinel intercontinental range ballistic missile program <a href=" target="_blank">uncertain</a>, have led to greater importance being attributed to the B-21 program as a means of striking targets deep inside enemy territory. Critics of plans to increase procurement have, among other factors, highlighted the rapid improvements to Chinese radar technologies which create a significant possibility of Chinese forces being able to detect and neutralise B-21s at very long ranges either by the time the bomber enters service or not long afterwards. </p><p ><img src=" ></p><p >In June the Pentagon <a href=" >increased a price cap</a> for its acquisitions of its first 21 B-21s, after cost overruns led Northrop Grumman to take significant financial losses on these aircraft previously reported at $1.56 billion. Widespread calls have for years been made to expand the scale of B-21 acquisitions, with the U.S. Congress Strategic Posture Commission in October 2023 being among the sources to <a href=" >stress</a> the importance of this. In a <a href=" >report</a> authored by former U.S. bomber pilot Mark Gunzinger, the Melbourne based Mitchell Institute think thank in June 2020 stressed that the U.S. would need to neutralise a very large number of targets deep inside Chinese and Russian airspace in the event of war, which would necessitate a B-21 fleet far exceeding the projected 100 bombers. It called for a fleet of a little over 200 B-21s. The U.S. Congressional Research Service in a 2019 report also <a href=" >highlighted</a> that retirement of the B-1B, B-2 and eventually the B-52 bombers would require much larger B-21 acquisitions to avoid a collapse in the size of the overall bomber fleet. The Washington D.C. based Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments at the time advised acquisition of 288 B-21 bombers and alongside the retention of the full B-52H fleet.</p>