NATO Military Chief Reveals: Western Bloc Would Fight Russia Directly if it Didn’t Have a Nuclear Deterrent

<p >Chair of the NATO Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer has highlighted the key role played by Russia’s nuclear forces in deterring the Western world from entering an open conflict with Moscow directly. Speaking on November 10 during a defence summit in the Czech Republic, the chairman stated that Russia’s nuclear arsenal was the central factor distinguishing it from the Taliban in Afghanistan regarding its ability to combat NATO forces. “I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out,” he added. His statements follow consistent allusions to the possibility of nuclear escalation by Russian officials, and can be interpreted in the context of the significant decline in the standing of Russian conventional forces in the aftermath of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Although Russia’s armed forces remain vastly outspent by those of the collective Western Bloc, however, the massive expansion of its ground forces and defence sector since early 2022, the sharp contraction of Western air and ground forces over the last 20 years, and major inefficiencies in European militaries in particular, have led several analysts to assess that claims of NATO’s conventional superiority are largely exaggerated.</p><p ><img src=" title="Russian Thermobaric Bombardment in Ukraine and TOS-1A Rocket Launcher"></p><p >Security analysts have for decades alluded to the importance of nuclear weapons as a vital asset to deterring Western military offensives, with this considered a key rationale for Russia, China and North Korea’s strong investments in their nuclear arsenals as all three perceive considerable threats of Western attacks. Despite Russia’s nuclear deterrent, which remains by far the largest in the world, calls from within the Western world, and within Europe in particular, for an escalation of Western combat operations in Ukraine have been widespread. Admiral Bauer’s statement comes at a time when Britain and France are strongly lobbying the United States to allow for joint cruise missile strikes to be launched from Ukraine deep into Russian territory, while French President Emmanuel Macron has since <a href=" greater deployments of ground forces in Ukraine were not ruled out as part of a policy to “do everything necessary to prevent Russia from winning this war.” The French government notably began considering options for major ground force deployments to Ukraine from June 2023, while calls for such options to be considered <a href=" been raised</a> by figures such as Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, and Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen. </p><p ><img src=" title="Forward Observations Group Personnel in Kursk"></p><p >While the Biden administration consistently took a much less hawkish position on the issue than its European allies, the inauguration of a second Trump administration in January 2025 is expected to significantly further widen the rift, and thus limit the possibility of European states proceeding with major ground force deployments due to American opposition. Amid increasingly extreme Ukrainian losses, a <a href=" >new consensus</a> has increasingly emerged in the Western world that the conflict has been lost, and that the Western Bloc needs to plan for a future where the large majority of Ukraine, if not its entire territory, is under Russian control or influence. Although not escalating to operations to levels advocated by many hardline European leaders, Western advisors, logisticians, combatants, and other personnel have nevertheless played a very major role on the ground in the Ukrainian theatre since early 2022, ranging from<a href=" > British Royal Marines deployed</a> for frontline combat operations from April that year at the latest, to <a href=" >SAS advisors</a> reportedly supporting armoured offensives against Russian positions. </p><p >More recently the Forward Observations Group American military organisation has confirmed the deployment of its personnel to support a Ukrainian offensive into the Russian Kursk region, with reports of English, Polish, and French speaking personnel <a href=" >operating</a> in the region in significant numbers having emerged. Western ground forces, often operating as volunteers or contractors, have played central roles on the frontlines throughout the conflict, albeit not on the scale referred to by Admiral Bauer and others who alluded to a possible more overt deployment for a higher level conflict. Thus while Russia’s nuclear forces have deterred the West from escalating to an open war, they have fallen short of deterring very significant Western contributions to the war effort up to and including frontline personnel deployments. </p>