Russia Likely to Sell its Former Top Fighter Squadron to North Korea: Why the Su-27SM2/3s is Ideal For Pyongyang

<p >On December 10 the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) Admiral Samuel Paparo <a href=" target="_blank">reported</a> that the Korean People’s Army Air Force, the official name of the air arm of North Korea’s armed forces, was set to receive Russian <a href=" >MiG-29 and Su-27</a> fourth generation fighters. The acquisition will mark the first by North Korea of new fighter aircraft in close to 30 years, after licensed production of MiG-29s in the East Asian country ended some time in the mid-2000s. The reported decision to export these two fighters classes stimulated considerable speculation, with no Su-27 exports having been made since the early-mid 2000s due to the class being <a href=" target="_blank">phased out of production</a>, while it remains uncertain whether MiG-29s provided will be modernised Soviet-built airframes, of which Russia maintains reserves of several hundred, or will be the <a href=" target="_blank">modern MiG-29M variant</a>. With the Su-27 no longer in production, and the large majority of the aircraft being effectively obsolete, a significant possibility remains that the fighters intended for North Korea will be the heavily modernised Su-27SM2/SM3 variants, of which 24 are though to be in service.</p><p ><img src=" title="Russian Air Force Su-27SM2"></p><p >The Su-27SM2/3 is the only variant of the Su-27 not considered obsolete, and represents an enhancement of the Cold War era design with the <a href=" target="_blank">Su-35’s Irbis-E radar</a> and with more powerful AL-31F-M1 engines. Twelve Su-27SM3s were delivered from 2010-2011, at which time they were the most capable air superiority fighters in the Russian Air Force pending the operationalisation of the Su-35 in 2014. Alongside new radars, the aircraft also received entirely new avionics and access to a wide range of new weapons types, providing performances in some ways comparable to the Su-35. Shortcomings to performance compared to the Su-35 included higher radar cross sections, the lack of <a href=" target="_blank">wing-mounted L-band radars</a>, and significantly poorer ranges and flight performances due to their lack of modern AL-41F-1S engines. After production was complete, the Air Force’s satisfaction with the aircraft led it to order twelve older Su-27s be modernised to the same standard. The aircraft were briefly deployed to Syria in late 2015 as part of the Russian response to the Turkish shootdown of a Su-24M strike fighter the previous month, which reflected their elite status within the fleet.</p><p ><img src=" title="North Korean Leadership Inspect Su-57 Cockpit in Russia"></p><p >Older variants of the Su-27 are today considered an effectively obsolete, with North Korea unlikely to consider accommodating the aircraft’s very high operational costs and maintenance requirements if they come with easily jammed and countered Soviet era weapons and sensors. The fact that Pyongyang’s Western adversaries gained extensive access to Soviet era Su-27s through Ukraine and Belarus from the 1990s further limits the attraction of these aircraft. Supplying Su-27s modernised with Su-35 level avionics thus represents one of very few ways that Russia can make the aircraft attractive. The Su-27 notably boasts much higher levels of manoeuvrability than any Western fighter class other than the F-22 and F-15SA/QA/EX, and has a much longer range and larger radar size than any Western fighter class, meaning when paired with modern avionics and weaponry it remains highly formidable despite its age.</p><p >Although the Su-27SM2/3 has higher operational costs and maintenance needs than its more advanced derivative the Su-35, due to the less advanced materials in its airframe, the aircraft’s procurement cost is estimated to be around half that of its successor, while the use of the same radar, avionics and weaponry means the performance discrepancy is not as wide. The discrepancy could be further narrowed if the fighters integrate <a href=" target="_blank">modern missile classes </a>such as the R-77M, or<a href=" target="_blank"> advanced indigenous missiles </a>developed in North Korea which appear to be much more advanced than Russia’s older R-77 and R-27. </p><p ><img src=" title="Su-27s and U.S.-Produced F-16" ></p><p >Despite the Su-27 having been effectively absent from global fighter markets for close to two decades, there are multiple possible rationales for North Korea’s procurement of the aircraft. These are as follows:</p>For Russia, delivering only older aircraft to its neighbour avoids significantly disrupting relations with Japan, South Korea and the United States, with Su-27s having insufficient capabilities to remain survivable outside North Korean airspace, and being able to potentially challenge modern fighters such as F-35s or F-15EXs only if operating alongside North Korea’s <a href=" target="_blank">ground based air defences</a>. For political reasons, they may thus be the only heavyweight fighters that Russia has made available.Su-27s can also be delivered more quickly than waiting for new Su-30, Su-35 or Su-57 fighters to be built, which is beneficial for Pyongyang due to the risk that Russia’s position on fighter exports may change should a ceasefire in Ukraine be reached. The Su-27SM2/SM3 could be considered a stopgap acquisition to familiarise the North Korean fleet with the operations of ‘4+ generation’ fighters, paving the way to <a href=" target="_blank">acquisitions of more advanced aircraft</a> in future such as the Su-57. The fact that Russia’s Su-27s have already seen many years of service means that they could be procured at a very low cost, and may be phased out of elite frontline units relatively quickly once newer aircraft are procured.