Russia Could Realistically Ship Hundreds of Stored MiG-29 Fighters to North Korea: This is How the Transfer Could Proceed

<p >North Korea’s air force is scheduled to receive <a href=" >MiG-29 and Su-27</a> fourth generation fighters from Russia, according to a <a href=" >report</a> by the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) Admiral Samuel Paparo on December 10, with speculation having been considerable regarding the nature of the deal. In a <a href=" target="_blank">previous assessment</a> it was concluded that deliveries of modernised Su-27SM2/SM3 fighters remain likely, as these are the only variants of the Soviet era fighter class with non-obsolete sensors and avionics that can justify the aircraft’s inherently very high operational costs. It is expected that MiG-29s will form the large majority of fighters sold to North Korea, primarily because of the aircraft’s lower operational costs which make them more affordable to re-equip multiple units, but also because much larger quantities of <a href=" target="_blank">modern MiG-29s </a>can be made available. Only 24 relatively modern Su-27s have ever been built, and the possibility of investing millions of dollars per airframe to modernise more of the aircraft seems limited when considering that they have been worn out by a decade or more of service already. By contrast, Russia maintains reserves of several hundred new and barely used MiG-29s which could be modernised for sale to North Korea. </p><p ><img src=" title="Soviet MiG-29 Modernised to MiG-29UPG Standard For Indian Service"></p><p >The MiG-29 is currently by far the most capable fighter in North Korean service, with an estimated 40-60 of the aircraft in its fleet, many of which  were built in the country under license. While avionics suites developed for the MiG-29 during the Soviet era are today considered obsolete, Russia has continued to produce the relatively <a href=" target="_blank">advanced MiG-29M</a> for export, and to modernise reserve Soviet-built airframes to the <a href=" target="_blank">MiG-29SMT and MiG-29UPG </a>standards with very similar avionics and the same weaponry as a less costly option. Modernised Soviet-built MiG-29s can not only benefit from newly developed more efficient RD-33 series 3 engines and expanded fuel carrying capacities, but also glass cockpits, R-77, R-77M and R-73/74 missiles, and either the widely used Zhuk-ME PESA radar or the newer Zhuk-A/AM AESA radar. These aircraft are estimated to cost Russia under $7 million to modernise, and thus represent the least costly option for North Korea to enhance a maximum number of squadrons to a ‘4+ generation’ standard – a major upgrade for the bulk of its units that operate first and second generation aircraft from the 1950s and 1960s. </p><p ><img src=" title="Soviet-Built MiG-29A (Bottom) and American-Built F-18D"></p><p >The Soviet Air Force was estimated to field close to 800 MiG-29s when the USSR disintegrated, with many more unassembled kits in service. The state’s disintegration fuelled a rapid contraction of the fleet, with reserves of relatively new or unused MiG-29s estimated to number close to 400. The value of these early fourth generation aircraft continues to diminish by the year as fighter technologies advance, which had led Russia to offer MiG-29s as aid to Lebanon, Serbia and Syria in the past. North Korean acquisitions could follow the Serbian model, with Soviet era MiG-29 airframes supplied free of charge, while payment is made to cover the costs of upgrades to the MiG-29SMT or another enhanced standard, as well as the costs of training and modern weaponry. Far moreso than Serbia or Lebanon, Russia has a strong incentive to strengthen North Korea’s aerial warfare capabilities as the two face common threats from expanding Western Bloc forces in East Asia, with a stronger North Korean fleet taking pressure off Russian air units should the two exercise collective defence in the region. The contraction of the Russian fighter fleet to a small fraction of its Soviet era size makes this particularly important, with Russia itself only fielding an estimated 850 fighters and interceptors stretched between the Arctic, Eastern Europe, East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. </p><p ><img src=" title="MiG-29SMT"></p><p >While the sheer size of Russian territory has inclined the Russian Air Force not to deploy MiG-29s in large numbers, due to the class’ much shorter range and smaller radar size compared to the Su-27 and its derivatives, the aircraft are considered optimal for air defence duties in North Korea. The sheer numbers of Soviet-built MiG-29s Russia retains, the diminishing value of these reserves, and North Korea’s capacity to absorb 200 or more new fighters into its large fleet, raises the possibility that Russia could make very large scale transfers of MiG-29s to re-equip multiple North Korean units. The fact that the MiG-29’s operational costs are higher than the MiG-17, MiG-19 and MiG-21 fighters they are expected to replace means that one-for-one replacements of the 400 or so legacy aircraft in service is unlikely, although the Korean fleet could realistically accommodate 100-200 MiG-29s alongside two dozen Su-27s. The very large quantities of aircraft Russia retains, and the low cost of modernisation, makes this <a href=" target="_blank" >highly feasible</a>, although North Korea may itself seek not to invest too heavily in the aircraft, and to leave a capacity in its air force to procure more advanced fighters<a href=" target="_blank"> such as Su-57s</a> later on in more limited numbers.</p>