China May Win ‘Race’ to Field First Sixth Generation Fighters – U.S. Air Force Chief Warns

<p >Assistant Secretary of the United States Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Andrew Hunter has warned that China could become the first country to field sixth generation fighter aircraft, following the<a href=" target="_blank"> release of images</a> in late December of two flying technology demonstrators from separate Chinese next generation programs. Referring to a “race” to field the next generation of airpower, Hunter warned in an interview at the Pentagon that “they could beat us to the punch.” “It’s fair to say we pay a lot of attention to what the Chinese are doing. And so, not everything that becomes public is a shock. But having said that, their pace is incredibly fast,” he elaborated. “We certainly have no time to lose,” he added, noting that bringing a fighter into operational service was something “they may well beat us on” in terms of timing. With China expected to begin fielding its first sixth generation fighters close to 2030, America’s competing Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program has faced growing uncertainties. The possibility of the program’s termination due to its high cost was repeatedly raised in 2024. China has consistently been able to field fighter aircraft with small fractions of the development costs of their American counterparts, with the <a href=" target="_blank">J-20 fifth generation fighter </a>estimated to have cost less than one tenth as much as its American rival the F-35 to develop, which is likely to make its sixth generation program economically far more viable. </p><p ><img src=" title="NGAD Sixth Generation Fighter Concept Art (Lockheed Martin)" ></p><p >The precedent set by serious delays to the American F-22 and F-35 fifth generation fighter programs has led experts to raise serious concerns regarding whether the United States will be able to field a sixth generation fighter on anything approaching the same timeline as China. Leading expert on Chinese next generation fighter programs, and author of the book <a href=" target="_blank">China's Stealth Fighter: The J-20 'Mighty Dragon' and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance</a>, Abraham Abrams, observed to this effect that although the F-35 “could derive many of its most complex technologies from the already tried and tested F-22,” it “had still taken fifteen years between the beginning of EMD [Engineering Manufacturing and Development], and its attaining of a limited initial operating capability in the Air Force. This precedent, and that of the similarly stalled F-22, indicated that the NGAD would not be operational until closer to 2040.” By contrast “the J-20’s entry into service came just six years after its first flight, placing the program entirely in a league of its own for development speed among aircraft of its generation despite it being China’s first fifth generation fighter.” According to Abrams, the significant discrepancy consistently demonstrated between China and the United States over the last 30 years in how quickly they could develop advanced new aircraft indicated that China’s sixth generation fighter would likely enter service long before its American counterpart. </p>