China Will Field a Sixth Generation Fighter Before America Can – Expert Highlights Why

<p >Since the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force operationalised the <a href=" target="_blank">J-20 fifth generation fighter </a>in February 2017, which made China only the second country in the world to bring an indigenous stealth fighter into service, questions have increasingly been raised regarding the strength of the country’s position to compete with the United States in the sixth generation of fighter aviation. Signs of concern from the United States would continue to grow into the 2020s as the J-20 program progressed beyond expectations, both in the scale on which it was produced and in the sophistication of the features it demonstrated, while the rival American F-35 fighter continued to be mired by a wide range of issues that <a href=" target="_blank">sparked sharp criticisms </a>from both military officials and lawmakers. </p><p >Head of the U.S. Air Combat Command General Mark Kelly <a href=" >warned</a> in September 2022 that China was well positioned to begin fielding sixth generation fighters before the United States, stating: “I cannot tell you today what’s going on in China except they’re planning for their 20th National Party Congress [in October]. But I can tell you what’s not happening. They’re not having a debate over the relevance of six-gen air dominance. And I can also tell you they’re on track.” That year saw questions increasingly raised <a href=" >regarding the affordability</a> of Americans Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) sixth generation fighter, and ambitions for the program <a href=" >toned down</a> as a result, while Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall admitted that his prior claim that the program had entered the landmark Engineering, Manufacturing and Development phase had <a href=" >not been accurate</a>.</p><p ><img src=" title="Chinese Sixth Generation Fighter Demonstrator"></p><p >The U.S. Air Force in 2024 began to seriously reassess whether it would proceed with development of the NGAD, or whether it would seek a less costly alternative such as a lighter shorter ranged sixth generation fighter or even unmanned alternatives. While these could provide an unmanned counter to China’s own sixth generation programs, they would not provide a means of engaging the Chinese fleet on a peer level. Commenting on America’s prospects to be able to compete with China in the development of a sixth generation fighter, leading expert on Chinese next generation fighter programs and author of the book <a href=" target="_blank">China's Stealth Fighter: The J-20 'Mighty Dragon' and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance</a>, Abraham Abrams, <a href=" target="_blank">provided insight</a> into primary factors that will shape the competition. </p><p >“An assessment of the performances of the Chinese and American defence sectors in recent decades indicates that it is still highly likely that China will field a sixth generation fighter significantly earlier than the United States can,” Abrams observed, noting: “A comparison of the development timeline of China’s J-20 fifth generation fighter with its American rivals the <a href=" and F-35 provides</a> notable indicators of this.” In particular, he highlighted the fact that the J-20 moved from the first demonstrator flight to frontline service in just six years, where the F-35 and the F-22 had taken fifteen to sixteen years, which demonstrated that China could develop new generations of fighters in fractions of the time America could.</p><p ><img src=" title="NGAD Sixth Generation Fighter Concept Art (Lockheed Martin)"></p><p >“For the race to develop a more capable sixth generation fighter, China’s technological and industrial standings relative to the United States were significantly more advantageous than they had been in the fifth generation era,” Abrams noted, concluding that “there were considerable grounds for concern that China could comfortably win the sixth generation race, particularly in terms of the speed at which it could bring aircraft into service.” The expert highlighted that hopes in the United States that use of advanced digital assembly and testing technologies was expected to significantly accelerate NGAD’s development and reduce costs, the value of these technologies was conceded by Secretary Kendall to <a href=" >have been “over-hyped.”</a> With the F-35 having taken over 15 years between entering its Engineering, Manufacturing and Development phase, and entering service, Abrams observed that the fact that the NGAD fighter was confirmed in 2022 not to have entered this phase indicated it may not enter service until the latter half of the 2030s, presuming it follows a similar development timeline to its predecessor. China’s <a href=" target="_blank">unveiling</a> of two flying sixth generation technology demonstrators in December 2024, with no similar steps having been taken by the United States, has served to draw growing attention to what appears to be an emerging Chinese lead in the field. </p>