American Plan For War With Iran Outlined in This Influential Think Tank Paper

<p >In the aftermath of a major<a href=" target="_blank"> Iranian missile strike </a>on Israeli military and intelligence facilities on October 1, which was launched in retaliation for an <a href=" target="_blank">Israeli air strike</a> on Tehran on July 31, Israeli and Western sources have increasingly indicated that a new much larger Israeli attack on Iran is expected to occur imminently. Israeli officials have stated that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, oil production facilities and the communications and banking sectors are being considered, as are "targeted assassinations" of key figures in the country’s leadership, with one senior security official having directly threatened the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Any such attack is expected to be supported by Western countries with military presences in the region, most notably the United States, with Western support having been key to <a href=" target="_blank">arming</a> Israel, <a href=" target="_blank">ensuing high availability rates </a>for its aviation assets, and providing it with key intelligence using satellites and other systems. </p><p ><img src=" title="Israeli F-15, F-35 and F-16 in Joint Exercise with U.S. Air Force and Navy"></p><p >The looming possibility of further escalation of a regional war in the Middle East has led experts to highlight that the current course of hostilities mirrors that laid out in an influential Brookings Institute paper providing recommendations on how to pursue Western Bloc interests against Iran. The 2009 paper Which Path to Persia? focuses on using Israel as an effective proxy for Western Bloc interests to allow the Western world to maintain plausible deniability when internationally condemnable attacks are committed against Iran – namely the devastation of its economy and key infrastructure in strikes which would be considered highly illegal. This possibility is outlined in Chapter 5, titled: Leave it to Bibi: Allowing or Encouraging an Israeli Military Strike, with Bibi being a popular nickname for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The paper notes to this effect: </p><p >"As in the case of American airstrikes against Iran, the goal of this policy option would be to destroy key Iranian nuclear facilities in the hope that doing so would significantly delay Iran’s acquisition of an indigenous nuclear weapons capability. However, in this case, an added element could be that the United States would encourage and perhaps even assist the Israelis in conducting the strikes themselves, in the expectation that both international criticism and Iranian retaliation would be deflected away from the United States and onto Israel."</p><p ><img src=" title="Live GBU-31/B Joint Direct Attack Munitions and Israeli F-35"></p><p >Iran has for years been listed as one of the Western world’s four Great Power Adversaries alongside China, Russia and North Korea. Although its military capabilities are by far the most limited among the four, they are still considered among the most formidable in the Middle East. With Iran receiving growing quantities of Chinese investment, and having joined the Chinese led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS, its economic development independently of the Western world, and development of a sizeable defence sector, have been viewed as major challenges to Western interests. Iran has directly challenged Western Bloc interests in the region on multiple occasions, most notably in the Syrian conflict in the 2010s where it has supported the government against Western, Turkish and <a href=" target="_blank">Israeli backed</a> insurgents, but also in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza where it has been the only regional actor to support paramilitary groups opposed to Western interests. </p><p >A sufficiently devastating Israeli attack on Iran could have significant geopolitical implications that would be highly favourable for the Western world, with a high possibility remaining that Israel will be the only one to launch actual strikes, but that these will be strongly supported by and coordinated with several NATO member states. The arrival of commander of U.S. Central Command Michael Kurilla in Israel on October 5 has further strengthened the consensus that the upcoming attack will be closely coordinated. While the outcome of the current conflict remains uncertain, and analysts’ predictions continue to vary widely on its future course, the possibility of the West relying on Israel to serve as a proxy for launching strikes remains significant. </p>