As Syria Falls Under NATO Influence, Its Large Soviet Arsenals Could Soon Flow to Ukraine

<p >In the early afternoon of December 8, local time, the Syrian government was confirmed to have ceded power and lost control of the capital Damascus to the advancing forces of the Al Nusra Front paramilitary group and associated Turkish backed Islamist fighters. The end of the Syrian Ba’ath Party’s more than sixty years in power marks a major turning point for the country’s geopolitical orientation, with Damascus for over half a century having remained outside the Western sphere of influence, making it an adversary of neighbouring Israel and NATO member Turkey. One significant likely consequence of the takeover of the country by paramilitary groups supported by NATO members is that its sizeable Soviet-, Russian- and North Korean-supplied arsenals could soon be transferred to support NATO’s key strategic partner Ukraine, which has suffered from <a href=" target="_blank">increasingly scarce supplies</a> of compatible Soviet standard military equipment.</p><p ><img src=" title="Syrian Arab Army T-62M Tank" ></p><p > </p><p >Having been a major client for Soviet military equipment since the 1950s, and maintained one of the largest tank forces in the world, the transfer of large parts of the Syrian inventory to Ukraine could provide a tremendous boost to the country’s fighting strength. Syrian arsenals were built up during the Cold War with the primary purpose of confronting Israel, with the two states having waged multiple wars from the 1940s to the 1980s. The country was accordingly made one of the first two clients for the Soviet T-62 tank in the early 1970s, which was at the time the most capable tank class ever exported. These were followed by large scale exports of T-72s, which provided the Syrian Arab Army with a <a href=" target="_blank">distinct advantage</a> over Israeli armour during the Lebanon War. </p><p >Syrian inventories have the potential to totally transform and tremendously expand the armoured warfare capabilities of <a href=" target="_blank">Ukraine’s conscript army</a>, with the furnishing of over 3000 tanks being possible. After decades of T-72 acquisitions, Syria was delivered T-90 and modernised T-62M tanks as aid by Russia in the 2010s . The T-55 which forms the backbone of Syrian armoured divisions, although older, has been deployed by both Russia and Ukraine. Those in Syrian service have notably been more heavily modernised, and benefit from improved North Korean fire controls such as laser rangefinders. Overall the Syrian tank force is estimated at well over 4000 vehicles, including over 1000 each of the T-72 and T-62.</p><p ><img src=" title="Ukrainian Army OTR-21 Tochka – A Missile Class Widely Deployed by Syria"></p><p >Alongside main battle tanks, Syrian artillery inventories, and perhaps most significantly as large arsenals of Soviet and North Korean ballistic missiles could be highly coveted by Turkey and Western Bloc states to equip the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Syrian MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter aircraft, too, are classes that currently form the backbone of the Ukrainian fleet, making the Syrian inventory ideal to replenish Ukraine’s losses. Syrian inventories of 152mm artillery rounds, firearms, and other equipment, could also provide key support to Ukraine’s war effort. The covert provision of the arsenals of a defeated adversary to a strategic partner would be far from unprecedented, with Libya’s sizeable Soviet supplied arsenals notably <a href=" target="_blank">having been channeled</a> by Western intelligence agencies to Syrian anti government insurgents after the <a href=" target="_blank">defeat over the Libyan government </a>in 2011.</p>

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