Cole Palmer is the favourite to win the PFA player of the year – Talk Chelsea

On October 1, 2023, Chelsea were  in dire straits. They were sitting in 14th in the Premier League through six matchweeks, and they’d scored just five goals. It was arguably one of their darkest moments since the pre-Abramovich era. However, it would not last long, as exactly one month earlier, they’d signed a promising but untested attacker from Manchester City named Cole Palmer for just 40 million pounds.

Palmer’s 22 goals and 11 assists in that season helped them finish strong, losing just once in their final 15 matches to snag 6th place and a spot in the Conference League. This year, Chelsea are 3rd in the table through 11 matches, and they have their sights set on something much better for this season—as does Cole Palmer, who is currently sitting atop the odds leaderboard for this year’s PFA Player of the Year award, at +300 betting odds.

Cole Palmer Offers Great Value For PFA Player of the Year

Last year, City’s Phil Foden won the PFA Player of the Year award with six fewer goal involvements than Cole Palmer. However, while Chelsea barely scraped its way to a 6th place finish, City won their fifth PL title in six years under Pep Guardiola. Clearly, you can’t just be a good player, you have to play for a good team too.

With Chelsea now in a legitimate fight for the top four and Champions League places, a similar season for Palmer this year should be enough to take home the hardware. Palmer had 33 goal involvements in 33 PL appearances in 2023-2024, and this year, he’s got 12 in 11. So not only is Chelsea playing much better, but Palmer has somehow found a way to build on his otherworldly breakout performance last season. He’s also spreading out his contributions, helping out more in the buildup with five assists to go with his seven goals.

However, while he is currently atop the leaderboard, his perch up there is perilous, to say the least. Three of the other four players in the top five have won the award over the last four seasons. In fact, KDB, Haaland, and Salah combined to win this award five of six times from 2018-2023. The betting odds for Palmer, Haaland, and Salah are especially tight.

So tight, in fact, that some online sportsbooks might even have City’s talisman atop their leaderboard rather than Palmer. Haaland does already have 12 goals, so he’s about on pace with what he did last year, when he lost the award to his teammate. If Chelsea can stay in the top four and Palmer maintains his current scoring pace, he should be a great value bet here. The fact that he’s the only Englishman in the running (Saka is a ways back) gives him a slight edge too.

Could Palmer Win Premier League Golden Boot Too?

Since Erling Haaland joined the Premier League ahead of the 2022-2023 season, he has been beyond dominant in front of the net. In that debut year, he scored 36 goals in 35 PL matches. The guy in second place had 30. Last year, he regressed a bit, scoring just 27 league goals. This time, the margin was a tad smaller, as Palmer checked in in 2nd place with his 22 goals, even though his 11 assists gave him more goal involvements (33) than Haaland (32).

So, the big question is, can Palmer dethrone the mighty manchild they call Erling Haaland and keep him from winning his third straight Golden Boot? Well, sportsbooks don’t think so right now, and they’re not wrong. 

Haaland has 12 already this year, while Palmer has seven and Salah is in there with eight as well. While guys like Chris Wood and Bryan Mbeumo also have eight right now, we don’t expect them to keep that pace up, so it seems like the trio from City, Liverpool, and Chelsea are really the only ones competing for this award at this point. However, after scoring 10 goals in the first five matches, Haaland has only scored two in his last six PL starts, so he could be showing his mortality as a goalscorer just as his team, City, are doing the same as PL champions.

Haaland is at -500 odds to win the Golden Boot, with Salah coming in at +750 (which seems like the best bet on the board) and Palmer coming in 3rd at +1,200. While Palmer has a great shot at winning the PFA Player of the Year as the best player overall, it’s hard to bet against the raw numbers of Erling Haaland when it comes to strictly goal scoring.