<p >A ceasefire deal between Israel and the Palestinian paramilitary group Hamas is set to take effect on January 19, after Israel’s security cabinet earlier recommended ratifying the agreement as it "supports the achievement of the objectives of the war.” The deal was mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, and will see 33 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza exchanged for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The conclusion of hostilities leaves Israel and its strategic partners in Western world and in Turkey in considerably stronger positions, with the positions of regional actors outside the Western sphere of influence having been weakened tremendously. Israel’s unprecedented advances into the Gaza Strip and thorough destruction of local infrastructure was achieved at relatively little cost, with the territory expected to take close to a decade to recover even if large quantities of aid are permitted to enter.&nbsp;</p><p >Israel has meanwhile expanded its military footprint very considerably with the <a href=" target="_blank">defeat of Syria</a> to <a href=" target="_blank">occupy large parts</a> of Syrian territory, while working closely with Turkey to achieve the comprehensive destruction of the Syrian air defence network and ballistic missile deterrent after the fall of the government in Damascus. Israeli forces have also occupied large parts of Southern Lebanon, where a ceasefire with the local paramilitary group Hezbollah is not expected to hold indefinitely. With Hezbollah cut off from its supply lines with Syria’s fall to Israeli and Turkish backed militias, and much of its senior leadership having been assassinated by Israel, the group’s future remains uncertain.&nbsp;</p><p ><img src=" title="Israeli Merkava Tanks in Syria After Fall of Damascus"></p><p >With hostilities in Gaza having been paused, Israel is likely to focus on cementing its hold over large parts of Syria, where local residents have been widely evicted from their homes. This will also enable Israel, possibly working alongside the Islamist paramilitaries that now control the remainder of Syria, to focus their attentions on attacking the remnants of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The possibility of Israeli strikes supported by the country’s Western partners to target Iranian nuclear sites, and possibly figures in the Iranian leadership, are also a significant possibility, with the goal of destabilising the Iranian government that is now more isolated in the region. While the Israeli position was seen to be diminishing in the 11 months after hostilities began in Gaza on October 7, 2023, major successes both in eliminating Hezbollah’s leadership, and subsequently in supporting Turkish and Western efforts to topple the Syrian government, marked a major turnaround in the final quarter of 2024. With objectives in Gaza having been largely achieved, Israel is expected to strengthen its position on other fronts before potentially returning to make further gains against the Palestinian enclave in future.&nbsp;</p>
Gaza Ceasefire Marks Major Israeli and the Western Victory: What Comes Next?
