North Korean Air Force to Modernise With Russian MiG-29 and Su-27 Fighters: A Major Turning Point For the Fleet

<p >Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) Admiral Samuel Paparo has reported that the Korean People’s Army Air Force is set to receive Russian <a href=" target="_blank">MiG-29 and Su-27</a> fourth generation fighters, which will allow the country to rapidly expand the number of modern squadrons in service. The admiral added that the two countries had reached an agreement on the transfer of these “formidable” aircraft recently, adding that this decision was made after Pyongyang had offered to provide personnel to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine without prompting from Moscow. Paparo further noted that in contrast to claims made by Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, North Koreans had not been engaged in combat on the front lines. This was in line with prior assessments that North Korean forces were likely to be manning new artillery, anti-tank and ballistic missile systems, but were not likely to be deployed in mass infantry formations. Paparo’s statement thus contrasts to the images <a href=" target="_blank">widely conveyed</a> by Western sources of ‘human waves’ of North Koreans being deployed as cannon fodder, which has been the predominant narrative conveyed in Western reporting. </p><p ><img src=" title="North Korean Su-25 Attack Jets at Sunchon Airbase"></p><p >North Korea currently deploys an estimated 40-60 MiG-29 fourth generation fighters, with the large majority of these having been assembled in the country under license in the 1990s and 2000s. Other than an estimated sixty <a href=" fighters, which are among the most potent combat jets developed during the third generation, the remainder of the fleet is comprised of relatively obsolete second and first generation fighters. Nevertheless, the country has modernised many of its older fighter classes domestically, including integrating glass cockpits and modern electronic warfare systems, and developing <a href=" target="_blank">sophisticated indigenous air to air missiles</a>. Nevertheless, the age of the fleet is thought to have brought many aircraft near the end of their service lives, which would make deployment of new fighters highly valued. North Korea’s defence sector is among the most diverse and self sufficient in the world, with fighter aviation having long stood out as one of the few areas where the country’s armed forces relied heavily on foreign acquisitions. Russia notably has <a href=" target="_blank">considerable reserves </a>of new or barely used MiG-29s, including many that are unassembled which could potentially be built in North Korea itself. These could fill out ten or more fighter squadrons to replace the country’s ageing MiG-17, MiG-19 and MiG-21 aircraft. </p><p ><img src=" title="MiG-29M (front) and American-Built F-16 Fighters"></p><p >The Su-27 and MiG-29 were developed as part of a complementary high-low combination, with each having boasted distinct advantages over their American counterparts the F-15 and F-16 during the 1980s. Nevertheless, the post-Soviet decline in Russia’s combat aviation sector slowed the rate of modernisation of both fighter classes, meaning the most modern variants of the F-15 and F-16 today have a much better standing against the latest MiG-29s and Su-27s than was the case for Cold War era variants. The extent to which MiG-29s and Su-27s will contribute to North Korea’s aerial warfare capabilities depends heavily on how extensively they have been modernised, and with <a href=" target="_blank">what missiles classes</a> they have been equipped. The modern MiG-29M and MiG-29SMT, for example, deploy advanced phased array radars, and for a higher price are offered for export with advanced classes of AESA radars such as the Zhuk-A/AE. They can also deploy the highly sophisticated <a href=" target="_blank">R-77M air to air missile</a>, which has significant advantages over the AIM-120C/D deployed by the U.S. and its allies. </p><p ><img src=" title="Soviet Su-27 (left) and American F-15 Fighters"></p><p >There is nevertheless a significant possibility that MiG-29s and Su-27s delivered will not be modernised to the latest standard, and that after receiving these initial batches of less advanced fourth generation fighters relatively cheaply, North Korea will then look to procure more advanced newer fighters such as the Su-57. The country has been considered a <a href=" target="_blank">leading potential client</a> for the new fifth generation fighter as Russia <a href=" target="_blank">rapidly expands </a>its scale of production. The tremendous number of relatively obsolete fighters and bombers North Korean fields, with over 500 Vietnam War era and older aircraft in service, provides its air force with considerable room to absorb large numbers of Russian fighters. The deal reportedly reached for MiG-29s and Su-27s may well thus represent only the first stage of new acquisitions, with the gradual absorption of fourth generation fighters paving the way to later fifth generation acquisitions. Despite the significant benefits for North Korea of new acquisitions, the higher operational costs of the newer aircraft, and the very large long ranged Su-27 in particular, means that replacing older fighters with newer ones will likely necessitate a significant contraction of the country’s fighter fleet unless funding available for sustainment is increased substantially.</p><p ><img src=" title="North Korean Leadership Inspect Su-57 Cockpit in Russia"></p><p >North Korean procurements of new fighter aircraft from Russia has long been speculated, and in late October South Korean government sources reported that the north’s combat aviation pilots had been <a href=" target="_blank">dispatched</a> to Vladivostok in the Russian Far East. This fuelled speculation that they had begun training to operate new classes of Russian fighters. With Pyongyang remaining under a UN arms embargo, the possible loopholes which Moscow could seek to exploit to facilitate fighter exports were <a href=" in detail </a>by a leading expert on North Korean security in January. Author of the<a href=" book</a> on North Korean security Surviving the Unipolar Era: North Korea’s 35 Year Standoff with the United States A. B. Abrams <a href=" there were two primary means for Moscow to do so, the first being “to export fighters from classes the country already fields such as the MiG-29,” which it could be claimed were delivered before the embargo to “retain a degree of plausible deniability.” Regarding the second more controversial option, Abrams elaborated: </p><p >“should North Korea acquire Russian combat aircraft other than MiG-29s, such as the more advanced Su-35 and Su-57 fighters recently <a href=" >inspected</a> by its leader Kim Jong Un on a visit to Russia in September, these could be accompanied by Russian personnel at North Korean bases and presented as operating under a joint Russian-led unit – whatever the reality of the command structures under which they actually function. Such long range fighters, which are very easily capable of flying across Korea from airfields across the Russian border, could even be deployed between bases in the two countries to further this perception – while retaining duties such as <a href=" >interceptions</a> of American bombers near the peninsula and <a href=" >flyovers</a> during military parades in Pyongyang.”</p>

Leave a Comment