Syrian 25th Armoured Division Continues the Fight Against Jihadists Despite Government’s Fall: Can They Hold Out?

<p >Footage and reports from Syria have indicated that parts of the Syrian Arab Army 25th Armoured Division have refused orders to stand down despite the fall of the Syrian state on December 8, and have continued the fight against jihadist groups sponsored by Turkey and its strategic partners. Footage showed these units deploying Toyota pickup trucks, armoured personnel carriers and T-72 tanks, and pledging to continue the fight and lead a resurgence in the country’s armed forces. The Syrian capital Damascus was <a href=" target="_blank">overrun</a> by jihadist insurgent groups sponsored by the Turkish state and by a number of Turkey’s strategic partners including Qatar and <a href=" target="_blank">Israel</a>, after Syrian Army units for over ten days received consistent orders to stand down and withdraw. This allowed lightly armed insurgents to advance with very little opposition. The state’s fall coincided with the initiation of very large scale air and missile strikes on key ballistic missile and air defence sites by the Israeli Air Force after Syrian forces were ordered to abandon them. Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin subsequently visited Damascus, which is now considered firmly under Ankara’s influence.  </p><p ><img src=" title="Al Nusra Front Leader Al Julani Enters Central Damascus"></p><p >The 25th Armoured Division was considered among the most elite units in the Syrian Arab Army, and played a central role in major campaigns including the capture of Aleppo from insurgents in 2016. Its forces have an outstandingly flexible structure that includes both regular forces and irregular militias, while its operations have long had greater autonomy than other parts of the Syrian Arab Army. For its role in counterinsurgency operations, the division’s forces have been singled out for targeting under particularly intensive Western economic sanctions for close to a decade. </p><p >Should such Syrian Army units like those from the 25th Armoured Division form the core of a new insurgency against jihadist forces, there remains some potential for their ranks to swell. Former Syrian Arab Army personnel who have been identified at checkpoints by the Al Nusra Front and other Turkish sponsored Islamist groups which now govern the country have reportedly consistently been disappeared. Footage has shown jihadists making inquiries into the religious practices of surrendered Syrian soldiers, and pledging beheadings when soldiers were identified as coming from the Alawite Shiite minority which are considered infidels by these groups. Beheadings of members religious minorities, including minors, have already been confirmed in the city of Aleppo. The conduct of jihadist forces has the potential to swell the ranks of an insurgency led by former army units.</p><p ><img src=" title="25th Armoured Division Personnel Preceding the Fall of Damascus"></p><p >The defeat of the Syrian state raises serious questions regarding how remaining Army units will be able to maintain their equipment, with spare parts for tanks and sufficient fuel for their vehicles potentially running thin should operations be protracted. Extensive military interventions by Turkish, U.S. and Israeli forces also raise the possibility that remaining units like those from the 25th Armoured Division could be tracked and targeted by air, with the dismantling of the Syrian Air Force and its air defence network leaving them vulnerable in this regard. With significant numbers of Syrian Army units having fled to Iraq rather than surrender to jihadist forces, one significant possibility is that remaining forces could seek to use Iraqi territory to regroup and resupply and to organise resistance to jihadist rule. Support for such an insurgency is expected to be particularly high among <a href=" target="_blank">Christian</a> and Shiite minorities, which within four days of the state’s fall have already faced widespread attacks and intimidation raising fears of ethnic cleansing. It is notable that Syria’s Idlib governorate straddling the Turkish border, which was previously under the control of jihadist groups, previously saw an ethnic cleansing of minorities, with the expansion of this campaign across the country now considered likely. </p>