Top Five Potential Clients For the Su-57: Demand For Russia’s Fifth Gen. Fighter From Algeria to Vietnam

<p >Russia’s first class of fifth generation fighter the Su-57 Felon has been increasingly proactively marketed for export, and as one of just three fighters of its generation in production worldwide today it has the potential to offer clients a range of revolutionary new aerial warfare capabilities. The fighter’s appeal to foreign clients is likely to have been increased considerably by the entirely unique level of combat testing it has been put through in the Ukrainian theatre, with operations having included <a href=" >air defence suppression</a>, <a href=" >air to air combat</a>, and <a href=" >operations in </a>heavily defended enemy airspace, as well as a range of <a href=" >precision strike missions </a>using <a href=" >both internally and externally</a> deployed missiles. This is particularly significant since high level sources from some interested countries, such as India, have specifically highlighted the need to assess the aircraft’s service record in the Russian Air Force before placing orders. Speaking at Airshow China in Zhuhai on November 13, CEO of the Russian state run arms export conglomerate Rosoboronexport Alexander Mikheyev <a href=" >confirmed</a> that the firm “already signed the first contracts for the Su-57,” fuelling considerable speculation as to which the first clients for the aircraft could be. </p><p >An assessment of the five most likely countries to purchase the Su-57, and their requirements for the fighter class, is given below: </p><p ><img src=" title="Russian Air Force Su-57" ></p><p >Algeria</p><p >Algeria has shown <a href=" signs</a> of <a href=" an acquisition</a> of Su-57 fighters, with Algerian military officials having been <a href=" holding</a> models of the aircraft in recent years, while a collage of the fighter <a href=" installed</a> at the country’s defence ministry in 2020. The first unit of the fighters is reportedly intended to replace modernised <a href=" Foxbat </a>interceptors which were <a href=" in June 2022</a>. The scale at which Russia has invested in <a href=" of production lines</a> to support the program, which will allow for production of many more aircraft by 2027 than the 76 ordered by the Russian Defence Ministry, indicates that an export deal may have been reached some time ago. Algeria has strongly prioritised its aerial warfare capabilities since the <a href=" assault</a> against neighbouring Libya in 2011, and has recently continued to increase defence spending levels in the face of <a href=" threats</a> from NATO members and their regional partners. </p><p >Algeria has a long history of acquiring advanced Russian military equipment before other foreign clients, ranging from the MiG-25 fleet acquired from 1978, to the Pantsir-SM air defence system acquired from 2018. While previously seven Arab republics were significant clients for Russian military equipment, including Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Sudan and Libya, today Algeria remains the only one not to have been destabilised by Western intervention. This in turn has fuelled a growing consensus that it is likely to be a future target. Providing potential for further orders beyond an initial squadron, the <a href=" Su-57M </a> is expected to later compete with the Chinese J-35 to replace the Su-30MKA and MiG-29 as  the backbone of the fleet in the 2030s. </p><p ><img src=" title="Indian Air Force Su-30MKI Fighters"></p><p >India </p><p >The Indian Air Force has long been expected to be the leading client for the Su-57, much as it has been for most of Russia and the Soviet Union’s prominent prior fighter classes. India was the first country to order Soviet fourth generation fighters, and purchased MiG-29s in 1982, after having for years operated increasingly advanced variants of the MiG-21 and MiG-23. In 2002 it would become the first country to acquire Russian ‘4+ generation’ fighters with the acquisition of the Su-30MKI, which was at the time <a href=" more capable </a>than any fighter in the Russian Air Force itself. The heavily customised fighter used of the Su-37's N-011M radar, the first phased array radar ever integrated onto an export fighter, as well as the Su-35's controlled canards, AL-31FP engines and thrust vectoring nozzles. India was previously a partner in the Su-57’s development, and was set to receive extensive technology transfers and joint ownership of the program, although the country eventually pulled out of the deal which is widely considered to have been overly ambitious. </p><p >India has continued to show a strong interest in either license production or off the shelf purchases of the Su-57, with discussions on a license production deal <a href=" to be underway</a> in February 2023. The country has acquired over 270 Su-30MKIs, and with a fighter fleet well under the strength planned by the Indian Defence Ministry a comparably large scale acquisition of the Su-57 could make up the shortfall. It is notable that the very high costs of manufacturing the Su-30MKI in India, and integrating a range of foreign technologies onto them, has made their costs comparable to those of the new fifth generation fighters, meaning off the shelf Su-57 purchases from Russia could be seen as highly cost effective. The need for a fifth generation fighter is expected to grow as China is expected to continue to rapidly expand its fleet, <a href=" fifth generation fighters</a> to Pakistan, and field a sixth generation fighter from around 2030.</p><p ><img src=" title="Su-57 Launches Kh-59MK2 Cruise Missile"></p><p >Vietnam </p><p >Vietnam today operates a fighter fleet comprised entirely of Soviet and Russian aircraft, with its ground forces, navy and air defence network similarly overwhelmingly dependant on Russia as a supplier. As the country faces pressure from both China over its territorial claims, and from the Western Bloc over a range of domestic and foreign policy disputes, it is expected to continue to emphasise the importance of defence ties with Russia. Vietnam’s Su-22 strike fighters and Su-27 air superiority fighters are both expected to be replaced around 2030, while the country’s third fighter class the Su-30MK2 is considered increasingly obsolete compared to modern Chinese, Western Bloc and even Thai ‘4+ generation’ fighters such as the J-16 and Gripen E – and moreso against their fifth generation fighters. </p><p >The Su-57 is considered by far Vietnam’s most likely choice to modernise its fleet, with the class’ particularly long range allowing it to patrol disputed waters in the South China Sea from bases in the country. Vietnam has notably long declined to acquire shorter ranged fighters such as MiG-29s due to its strong preference for this. The aircraft’s very high versatility also allows it to replace both the Su-22 and the Su-27, and thus increase commonality within the fleet by bringing the total number of fighter classes to just two. <a href=" >Reports first emerged</a> in mid 2017 from Vietnamese paper Dat Viet that Vietnam’s armed forces planned the acquisition of 12-24 Su-57s from around 2030. <a href=" >Further reports to this effect </a>emerged in early January 2019. </p><p ><img src=" title="Indonesian AIr Force Su-30 Su-27 Fighters"></p><p >Indonesia </p><p >In May 2024 Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavares <a href=" a $1.14 billion contract signed for the acquisition of 11 Su-35S fighter aircraft from Russia remained in force, stating that it had been“put on hold to avoid certain potential inconveniences” but that Jakarta was waiting for the situation to become “more accommodating” before returning to implementation. Indonesia placed its first order for Russian Su-27 fighters in 1997, acquiring a small fleet of 10 Su-27s and Su-30s from 2003-2010 followed by six Su-30MK2s in 2013. The country has sought to remain neutral in the ongoing conflict between China and the United States, which combined with America’s unwillingness to provide top end aircraft has left it unlikely to acquire fifth generation fighters from either of the two leading powers. </p><p >The acquisitions of F-35s by neighbouring Singapore and Australia, and deployments of both Chinese and American fifth generation fighters in the region, has raised the significant possibility that acquiring Su-35s will not be seen as adequate to secure Indonesia’s airspace – with the fighters being technologically behind. As Indonesia continues to rapidly strengthen defence ties with Russia, with new arms acquisitions requests <a href=" target="_blank">reported</a> and unprecedented exercises launched, a significant possibility remains that the country will acquire Su-57s instead of Su-35s. Extensive efforts to ‘sanctions proof’ the Indonesian economy have paved the way for the country being able to make such acquisitions despite Western threats of economic warfare if it does so. </p><p ><img src=" title="North Korean Leadership Inspect Su-57 Simulator"></p><p >North Korea</p><p >North Korean officials have shown an interest in acquisitions of advanced Russian fighters for some years, and in September 2023 <a href=" facilities</a> at the the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant in Vladivostok producing Su-35s and Su-57s. Manned combat aviation remains one of the few areas where North Korea’s large defence sector has been unable to produce for its own needs, with the country having been unable to acquire new Russian fighters since the early 2000s due to the imposition of arms embargoes by the UN Security Council. As Russia <a href=" target="_blank">depends increasingly heavily</a> on North Korea to support its ongoing war effort with Ukraine and standoff with NATO, and has much to benefit from strengthening the aerial warfare capabilities of its strategic partners, the possibly of the country exporting Su-57s has grown. Possible loopholes which Moscow could seek to exploit in the current UN arms embargo on Pyongyang to facilitate fighter exports were <a href=" in detail </a>by leading expert on North Korean security A. B. Abrams in January, with a notable possibility being the formation of joint units that could have some Russian personnel deployed to avoid labelling the transfers as exports. </p><p >In October 2024 South Korean government sources <a href=" >reported</a> that North Korean combat aviation pilots had been dispatched to Vladivostok in the Russian Far East the previous month, raising the possibility that they may have begun training on modern fighters. With North Korean sources having expressed significant concern regarding the deployment of F-35s in South Korea and Japan, acquiring Su-57s to support the country’s increasingly advanced ground based air defences would provide an effective means of countering this. While previously the UN arms embargo was a primary factor preventing North Korea from being considered a leading potential client for new Russian fighter classes, Moscow’s newfound willingness to ignore or search for loopholes in this opens the possibility of North Korea making acquisitions of Su-57, which depending on the size of its revenues from arms exports to Russia could potentiallybe done in significant numbers. </p>