Ukrainian Intel. Estimates Russia Can Produce 300 New Oreshnik Long Range Missiles Each Year

<p >Following Russia’s <a href=" >first combat use </a>of the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile on November 21, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry publicised an intelligence assessment on Russian industry’s production capacity for the new weapons system. Russia is estimated to be able to produce up to 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly, which equates to production of 300 missiles per year. The missile class is the first of its kind developed in Russia since the 1980s, and combines an estimated 4000km range with an ability to carry multiple independently re-targetable warheads. Closely coinciding with the Ukrainian assessment, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed on December 6 that Moscow <a href=" target="_blank">planned to supply</a> Oreshnik missiles to neighbouring Belarus, after Belarusian President Alexsander Lukashenko asked about his country making such an acquisition. Plans for foreign deployments very shortly after the unveiling of the new missile class were a possible significant indicator of a large scale of production. </p><p >The ability of the Oreshnik to deploy both nuclear and conventional warheads, and to strike up to six targets using its multiple independently re-targetable warheads, makes it highly valued as a means of engaging Western Bloc forces across Europe, as well as deep into the Pacific and Arctic. The considerable asymmetric value of the system as a means of countering NATO’s much larger forces is expected to lead Moscow to deploy it in large numbers. Nevertheless, it remains a significant possibility that increased production of the missile could come at the expense of reduced production of intercontinental range ballistic missiles, most notably the RS-24 Yars system, with a monthly production capacity of 25 missiles potentially requiring a conversion of production facilities for the Yars system to production of the Oreshnik. Nevertheless, production of the Yars system in the 2010s averaged under 22 per year, which makes the attaining of production of 300 missiles for its new shorter ranged counterparts a particularly significant surge. </p>