Unless you haven’t checked social media or watched TV recently, almost everybody in America knows that the 2024 presidential election is a tight one. Instagram and TikTok commenters are split between supporting Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. So, since we may have a long few days until a president-elect is confirmed, who is projected to win the election?
Hollywood Life has rounded up the current projections and polls, below.
Nate Silver’s 2024 Prediction
It’s published.
We ran 80,000 simulations tonight.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2024
Nate Silver, who founded the political analyses website FiveThirtyEight, accurately predicted the 2012 and the 2020 presidential elections. Though his predictions have fluctuated in this year’s race, he updated voters on Tuesday, November 5, with his 80,000-simulation Electoral College model that Harris was projected to win by a slim margin.
However, Silver pointed out at the beginning of his statement, “When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating. … The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent.”
Previously, Silver predicted that Trump would win.
Allan Lichtman’s 2024 Prediction
Earlier in the election season, Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly forecasted nine out of 10 elections, predicted that Harris would take the lead. The professor is known as the “Nostradamus” of elections.
Lichtman developed the system known as the “13 Keys” (a.k.a “The Keys to the White House”) to determine the outcome of each presidential election.
So, Who Is Projected to Win the 2024 Presidential Election?
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is projected to win “50 times out of 100” in its election simulations, while Trump is projected to win “49 times out of 100.” The website noted that it used 1,000 simulations to determine the projected winner, with 503 favoring Harris, 495 favoring Trump and two ending up with no winner.
Who Is Winning in the Polls Now?
The polls have been neck and neck for weeks. Polling for both Harris and Trump have differed by a slim margin. Marist College predicted that Harris would lead with a 51 percent margin against Trump’s 47 percent.