<p >The Israeli Air Force has reportedly launched a small scale attack on the Iranian capital Tehran, with reports indicating that explosions were heard by residents, but no signs of damage or explosions on the ground have been seen. Iranian sources have reported that Israeli air launched missiles were launched against multiple air bases around Tehran, with these being unsuccessful as the missiles were intercepted on course to their targets. The explosions heard were attributed by local sources to the use of surface to air missiles to intercept the attacks, which aligns with the lack of images of actual explosions on the ground in or near Tehran. It is also consistent with leaked <a href=" target="_blank">U.S. intelligence reports </a>that Israel planned to use long range air launched ballistic missiles to strike Iran – which would be able to reach their targets while aircraft remained well outside the range of Iranian air defences.</p><p ><img src=" title="Israeli F-16 Launches Delilah Cruise Missile"></p><p >The small scale of the Israeli strike has raised questions regarding its purpose, with three likely possibilities having emerged:</p><p >The first option is that the attack was intended to test Iranian air defences, potentially in preparation for a larger scale attack in future during which Israeli planners will be more familiar with Iranian defences. Such a test could also divert the attentions of Iranian forces towards Tehran, which could be beneficial should Israel’s primary target be elsewhere.&nbsp;</p><p >The second option is that Israeli aircraft in the first wave saw their missile attacks successfully intercepted as Iranian sources claim, which led to further waves of strikes being called off in the expectation that these too would be ineffective.&nbsp;</p><p >The third option is that the strike was intended as a demonstration of resolve primarily for domestic audiences in Israel. With Iran having pledged to retaliate harshly and on an unprecedented scale to any Israeli attack, a very small scale strike could potentially be overlooked by Tehran while allowing Israeli leaders to maintain credibility domestically and satisfy domestic calls for retaliation, while at the same time avoiding escalation. Israeli officials have since October 1 pledged to strike Iranian targets, in response to a large scale Iranian missile strike that day which <a href=" target="_blank">targeted</a> major military and intelligence related facilities in the country and caused serious damage to key air bases. The Iranian strike responded to both an <a href=" >Israeli air attack </a>on the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, and to a failure by Israel’s allies to facilitate deescalation as Tel Aviv subsequently proceeded to <a href=" target="_blank">invade</a> and launch a major bombing campaign against neighbouring Lebanon.&nbsp;</p>
Why Did Israel Just Launch a Tiny Attack on Iran? Three Major Possibilities
