Will U.S. Industry Significantly Increase Planned Output of B-21 Stealth Bombers? Larger Fleet Under Consideration

<p >American industry is reported to currently have the capacity to significantly increase annual production of B-21 stealth bombers, which would allow the U.S. Air Force to move ahead with plans currently under consideration to increase overall orders without the need to spread procurements over a greater number of years. Head of the Air Force Global Strike Command General Thomas Bussiere observed to this effect on December 6: “If the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or Congress directs an accelerated ramp… for the B-21 program, there’s some capability growth within the current complex.” His statement was made in response to questions regarding the possibility of increasing B-21 production, including whether alongside the program’s primary contractor Northrop Grumman, other contractors may need to become abroad. He elaborated that the most efficient way” to expand production would likely “require opening up another production complex” with Northrop Grumman. </p><p ><img src=" title="B-21 Prototype During First Flight "></p><p >Bussiere recalled that the previous Chief of Staff, Chief of the Air Force, and Secretary of the Air Force had all testified before Congress that a fleet of 220 bombers would likely be needed to meet requirements, which would require the acquisition of at least 145 B-21s to supplement the 75 <a href=" target="_blank">B-52J bombers</a> the Air Force intends to retain. Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin previously stated in April that the B-21 “certainly is the future of our bomber force… 100 is the program of record,” adding that although this figure was set to be reached in the mid-2030s, this could change if a decision was made to increase the scale production. A reluctance to comment on the future size of the B-21 fleet is likely to be influenced by two primary factors. The first is the highly unfavourable precedents set by major post-Cold War aviation and warship programs, with the F-22 stealth fighter and B-2 stealth bomber both having suffered serious delays before seeng acquisitions<a href=" target="_blank"> cut to a fraction</a> of previously planned levels, while projected F-35 production, initially estimated at 5000 aircraft, has also been gradually cut. With the B-21’s <a href=" flight</a> already having been seriously delayed, further major delays remain a possibility, as do cost overruns. </p><p ><img src=" title="B-21 Prototype"></p><p >A second major factor is that the viability of very high value long range flying wing stealth bombers may well be brought to question, particularly as the U.S. faces a mounting fiscal crisis and is considered likely to be forced to make very deep cuts to government spending. Cost overruns, particularly relating to operational costs, may make a larger B-21 fleet unaffordable, and would follow the strong precedents set by the F-22, F-35 and B-2 programs for an inability to control these costs. Furthermore, major advances in radar technologies particularly in China may very significantly diminish the value of stealth bombers like the B-21, with the new aircraft’s primary advantage over the B-52J being its stealth capability. Additionally, programs including lower cost unmanned aircraft, more advanced cruise and ballistic missiles, and hypersonic aircraft, have all been considered as alternatives to the B-21, with the new bomber’s production run expected to be heavily influenced by the successes of these programs. The geopolitical situation in the mid-2030s is also a significant factor, as is the state of Chinese, Russia, North Korean and other adversaries’ defences which have all been <a href=" target="_blank">modernised rapidly</a>.</p><p ><img src=" title="B-21 Bomber Prototype in Flight "></p><p >Calls for a major expansion of B-21 production have been made with growing frequency for several years, with the Air Force most recently <a href=" target="_blank">reported in October</a> to be considering a significant expansion of planned acquisitions under a force structure review. Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden recently stated she believed that the possibility of expanded orders was “exactly what the Air Force is looking at,” with Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall having “been open about looking at the various options they have for increasing their force size, and has talked specifically about NGAD, and we know that B-21 is in the mix, as well.” In a <a href=" by former bomber pilot Mark Gunzinger, the Mitchell Institute think thank in June 2020 assessed that the U.S. Air Force would need to neutralise a very large number of targets deep inside Chinese and Russian airspace in the event of war, which would necessitate a B-21 fleet far exceeding the projected 100 bombers. It called for a fleet of a little over 200 B-21s. </p><p >The U.S. Congressional Research Service in a 2019 report also <a href=" retirement of the B-1B, B-2 and eventually the B-52 bombers would require much larger B-21 acquisitions to avoid a collapse in the size of the overall bomber fleet. The Washington D.C. based Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments at the time advised acquisition of 288 B-21 bombers and alongside the retention of the full B-52 fleet. Serious <a href=" >deficiencies</a> in submarine construction, and major cost overruns and <a href=" >development issues </a>that leave the future of the Sentinel intercontinental range ballistic missile program <a href=" >uncertain</a>, have led to greater importance being attributed to the B-21 program as a means of striking targets deep inside enemy territory.</p>